My gut feel is that a (full-on) war in Iran probably won’t happen… because… I’d like to say the cost/reward benefits seem really bad. But you know… democratically elected (crazy) people tend to resist normative conventions.
I’m less conspiratorial than most however. You know, that whole 1984 perma-war vibe to keep us docile and controlled. But maybe that’s just what they want me to think.
On up-scaling your target countries, (I’m assuming the eventual goal is war with China) Iran is likely more challenging than Iraq. Which was more of a challenge than Afghanistan. So in terms of honing your art-form the US is moving in the right direction.
Still, if I were feeling speculative, I’d put money on not-for-reals-war. Cruise missile strikes and other forms of bombardment from afar are much more likely. But invasion and boots on the ground… I can’t really imagine it.
Of course, I might have just jinxed it for everyone. Especially for your average Iranian, whom (I’m assuming) like most of us, doesn’t really want to get a face full of shrapnel and drink water out of a ditch because their leadership is a bunch of Mf’ers.
Don’t worry guys, potentially freedom is on the way, and descending rapidly.