Go Darke

Light thinks it travels faster than anything but it is wrong. No matter how fast light travels, it finds the darkness has always got there first, and is waiting for it

Daily Journal, Economics

Forkliftonomics

I slipped off the step climbing into one of my forklifts in the warehouse today. This is why you shouldn’t wear flip flops when operating heavy machinery. Smashed my shin against the edge of the step and then, for good measure, scraped the bone against the unyielding metal for several inches. It hurt like a motherf… well let’s go with it hurt a lot. I’d post a picture… but I can’t get a decent angle… and my hairy legs and pasty complexion is utterly unflattering. So I’ll post a selfie instead. (which is only slightly better)

The buff is not for any Covid-19 concerns but rather because of the dust and diesel fumes.

I thought about lying down and crying for a bit, despite the condescension this might have garnered from those around me. But instead opted for the more adult version of just sorta hopping around for a bit… doing a spastic little wardance and mouthing off a string of expletives. Eventually, to my credit, I pulled myself towards my self and hobbled off… expressing a deep desire for someone else to move the crate while I went off to pout… and poke at my now burgeoning bruise with a finger and eat Nutella out of the jar.

I was going to lie and say I stoically remounted that Toyota Diesel 2.5 metric ton and did what needed to be done….

Which kinda calls into question my whole analogy now about the stoic dispassion required when the markets are collapsing all around you.

Um…

Well it’s too late now. I also have no idea how to turn this into one of those always look on the bright side and every cloud has a silver lining type situations.

Except you know… there probably is an upside somewhere. I just can’t think of one. The corona virus, a collapsing oil price and massive gearing in the markets continues to fuel the firenado which is ripping through peoples investments and leaving them… well… somewhere between well done and charcoal. I don’t think anyone is getting out unmolested with their financial hymen intact.

BUT… once you’re done mewling and ready to unfurl yourself from the foetal position underneath your desk. If you’re a trader and have the gray proclivities and flexible morality of a grave robber you should have been shorting this market into the ground. Which… I have tentatively been doing. Truth be told I could have done this more aggressively… I left a lot of gold teeth in that particular corpse… but some profit is better than no profit… and there was a deep sense of disbelief at how low things could go. (So I won’t go too hard on my myself)

If you’re an investor and you’ve just watched your carefully cultivated portfolio and retirement savings (that you’ve patiently cultivated like a bonsai for the last decade )dissipate skyward in a maelstrom of awfulness… eh… well at least you have your health right? I mean until the corona virus gets you.

Upside. There are some amazing deals out there at the moment. AMAZING! All in caps with potentially multiple exclamation marks. Downside you kinda need cash to buy these delicious parcels of ambrosia like stock. I mean if you’re a little short you can always mortgage your house for additional funds or dip into your kids education fund… just kidding you probably shouldn’t do that… might need that money to buy baked beans, canned tuna and toilet paper in the dark days to come.

Investing is cyclical. Like the seasons. Spring will follow winter. Sometimes it’s a short season… sometimes it’s seems to last forever. Don’t listen to any of these market commentator fools though. No one knows. Could be over in the blink of an eye… could be a decade of mud caked foot slogging through the trenches.

I mean, because we all like to predict the future, despite having absolutely zero ability, my feeling is that things are likely going to be tougher for a while. Mostly this is because the reserve banks of the world have almost nothing left in the arsenal to fight this particular fight. Zero or even negative interest rates in the United States? Holy shit! Nobody really knows the implications of that sort of math. It’s mind boggling to consider… or you know, everything could be fine.

I will take the opportunity to say that with a diversified portfolio you will likely be fine. You know, old school diversification, where you had a little bit of everything. Not just a Vanguard (VOO) exchange traded fund. (although to be fair, if thats your only investment, that will, probably, on a longer time frame, work out well for you)

In any event. Everything is going to be okay. Eventually. Which is a weird thing for me to say because I’m usually the pessimist in the room. Sit tight. Baton down the hatches. Unless you’re trading, don’t sell anything.

Admittedly this might only start looking up in 2027 (probably sooner) and really, should you be taking financial advice from a masked individual who fell off a forklift?

Probably not.

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